For one reason or another have not been able to post for awhile, but some action tonight from Ascot in the UK.
Tartan Bearer to win the big race tonight in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Nothing between it and Conduit. Conduit hasn't won right handed, all it's big wins have come left handed so that is the difference, so Tartan Bearer it is as it has won right handed.
It's around $6 on betfair so a good each way bet
On tonight a little after midnight I think. Looks a very competitive race. Like Paco Boy but with it dropping back in distance I will give it a miss. Scenic Blast favourite on betfair at $2.76, while Takeover Target is at $17's.
Predicting a couple of upsets this weekend in AFL.
Western Bulldogs, at $1.63 on betfair, deserve to be favourites for tonight's clash against Collingwood and we expect them to be too good for the magpies - so we will get on at this price.
Carlton at $1.30 are very short, even though they are playing Richmond. Carlton have been too up and down this season to lump on at short odds. Had a look at Richmond with a 24.5 point start paying $1.92 but don't fancy that either - so we will skip this game.
Was looking to back Essendon this week but they are no value at $2.30 on betfair. Have done a turn-around and will in fact have a small bet on the Sydney with a minus 8.5 point start at $2.02.
After watching the bruising encounter last Sunday between St Kilda and Geelong, we thought Brisbane may have been a chance against the Cats this week. When we heard that 4 Cats were out injured last night only made us a feel more confident. So we will back Brisbane at $3.15 to win. And then when we heard Travis Johnstone was dropped by the Lions we decided to double our wager!!!
Adeliade should beat Fremantle but at $1.15 don't offer value.
While I'm not sure if anyone would feel comfortable taking the $1.54 on offer for Hawthorn in their match. If we were to bet in this match then the $2.78 on offer for North Melbourne looks attractive - but again we will watch on.
We were expecting Melbourne to be longer odds than $3.05 to beat Port Adelaide. But we will take some of the $2 being offered for Melbourne with a 17.5 point start.
In the final game we will have a small wager on the home team West Coast with a 32.5 point start against St Kilda.
Happy Punting
Fancy taking on some of the English players in the open, so Casey, Donald, Westwood, Poulter (twat!) won't win but I do think Oliver Wilson could go well at a big price.
Early punts:
When betfair offer the Swedes as one bet; get on -why back 1 fool when ya can back 10 at once! 8-1 would be a fair price.
Woods if his price goes above $3.50, currently best priced at $3 but sometimes the market drifts the day before tee off.
Oliver Wilson at 125-1 goes about his business nicely. Ogilvy at 40-1 is also worth a bet.
Tim Wilkinson, from New Zealand, is a favourite of the revolution and at $990 we have had a dollar each way
Fancy taking on Australia in the first test starting this week in Cardiff. You could of layed the Aussies at $2.70 yesterday, but that has drifted out to $3 after Brett Lee announced he would not be playing. It's meant to rain during the week in Wales - and I'm not sure if they will have the roof open or closed at millennium stadium.
Will back Australia to win the series 2-1 which is paying $8.60 on betfair
EDIT: They are not playing at the Millennium stadium at all so the weather will come into play - watch out for that welsh weather.
Cardiff Oulook:
Andy Roddick at $3.90 looks very good value tonight in his clash with Andy Murray. There will be enourmos amount of pressure on Murray and he did have a marathon five seter in his last match.
We hope Tommy Haas wins and he too looks good value at over $11 on betfair. But for anyone to beat Federer is a tall order. We will have a small bet on Tommy Haas at $11.50, but we will probably go loooking at other angles for action on this game - maybe set betting. Federer to win 3 sets to 2 is paying over $10's...
A very profitable round last week, with all but one of our selections getting home... for this round:
A little surprised that Collingwood are $1.50 favourites for tonight's clash. Although they probably deserve to be favourites there is not much difference between the teams. We will back Essendon at $2.82.
On Saturday we have selected Melbourne at $2.06 to defeat West Coast, hoping the Dee's will rise to the occasion for Jimmy, but with the demons record over the last two years punters should be cautious backing a team that has only won a handful of games.
Brisbane at $1.64 should win away against Port Adelaide if it considers itself as a genuine contender this year. Same goes for Adelaide at $1.31 against Richmond, but at $1.31 there is not much value - so we will miss this game.
We are just waiting for Hawthorn to come good, which may or may not happen - but for this reason we will avoid the Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn clash.
On Sunday Sydney are $1.39 but playing at the SCG deserve to be short, and should be too strong for North Melbourne.
While in much anticipated "match of the year" Geelong's class will start to rise to the top, while there are still question marks about whether St Kilda are a true genuine team. For these reason we will get on Geelong at $1.62.
Finally we will miss the Fremantle v Carlton match for 2 reasons, 1. too hard and 2. don't care
Happy punting
Essendon, Melbourne, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong and Carlton should all win - no time for more precise analysis
Ok big call but will be backing against both Williams sisters tonight. No multi's but will back both ladies palying both Serena and Venus - if either win big odds!!!
Eclipse on Saturday and Sea the Stars is around 10/11. Winning the 2000Guineas and Derby (it only really raced for about 200 meters in the Derby) one would think that racing at 2000 meters should be ideal. Yes, winners of the Derby stepping back in trip have been beaten in the Eclipse but that should not be a problem.
Rip Van Winkle is 7-2 which is no value given it was beaten by Sea The Stars on both runs this season. 3 years ago Oratorio won the Eclipse after being beat in the derby and 2000 guineas beating Motivator who had stuffed it in the Derby but Oratorio won at 10-1, so how anyone can recommend Rip at 7-2 is beyond me.
YOUMZAIN beat at odds on last weekend in France. Keeps coming 2/3/4 with excuses. Aviod.
Tartan Bearer 8-1 for the King George tasty!
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