AFL - Round 17

It's hard to go past all the favourites this weekend in the AFL.

It's hard to go past Geelong when they are playing in Geelong. Saying that they are playing a pretty good team in Adelaide today. But interstate teams playing at Skilled stadium generally fall to pieces so to add some value into the Cats we will back Geelong at $1.98 on betfair to win by more than 25.5 points.

Must say though the Western Bulldogs at $1.05 certainly doesn't offer any value. Although they should win easy today there is no point backing them at that price. If you were planing a bet in this match why not take Fremantle at $1.80 on betfair with a 54.5 point start - this would make watching this game more interesting.

The value bet of the round could be Brisbane to win at $3.55 on betfair to defeat Collingwood.

StKilda should be too good for Sydney in Sydney but this game could be closer than most people think so we will have a go at Sydney at $1.88 on betfair with a 35.5 point start.

Don't think Melbourne are too keen on winning too many more matches this year, and still with a game against Fremantle coming up, think they will be happy to use this game as a re-building game for the future. On the other hand Richmond look keen to win as much as they can so backing Richmond to win at $1.27 looks a safe bet.

The last two matches look dangerous with Victorian based teams playing interstate - against opposition who's form fluctuates widely so we will give these games a miss.

Read more...

AFL - Round 15

Predicting a couple of upsets this weekend in AFL.

Western Bulldogs, at $1.63 on betfair, deserve to be favourites for tonight's clash against Collingwood and we expect them to be too good for the magpies - so we will get on at this price.

Carlton at $1.30 are very short, even though they are playing Richmond. Carlton have been too up and down this season to lump on at short odds. Had a look at Richmond with a 24.5 point start paying $1.92 but don't fancy that either - so we will skip this game.

Was looking to back Essendon this week but they are no value at $2.30 on betfair. Have done a turn-around and will in fact have a small bet on the Sydney with a minus 8.5 point start at $2.02.

After watching the bruising encounter last Sunday between St Kilda and Geelong, we thought Brisbane may have been a chance against the Cats this week. When we heard that 4 Cats were out injured last night only made us a feel more confident. So we will back Brisbane at $3.15 to win. And then when we heard Travis Johnstone was dropped by the Lions we decided to double our wager!!!

Adeliade should beat Fremantle but at $1.15 don't offer value.

While I'm not sure if anyone would feel comfortable taking the $1.54 on offer for Hawthorn in their match. If we were to bet in this match then the $2.78 on offer for North Melbourne looks attractive - but again we will watch on.

We were expecting Melbourne to be longer odds than $3.05 to beat Port Adelaide. But we will take some of the $2 being offered for Melbourne with a 17.5 point start.

In the final game we will have a small wager on the home team West Coast with a 32.5 point start against St Kilda.

Happy Punting

Read more...

AFL - Round 14 Update

A very profitable round last week, with all but one of our selections getting home... for this round:

A little surprised that Collingwood are $1.50 favourites for tonight's clash. Although they probably deserve to be favourites there is not much difference between the teams. We will back Essendon at $2.82.

On Saturday we have selected Melbourne at $2.06 to defeat West Coast, hoping the Dee's will rise to the occasion for Jimmy, but with the demons record over the last two years punters should be cautious backing a team that has only won a handful of games.

Brisbane at $1.64 should win away against Port Adelaide if it considers itself as a genuine contender this year. Same goes for Adelaide at $1.31 against Richmond, but at $1.31 there is not much value - so we will miss this game.


We are just waiting for Hawthorn to come good, which may or may not happen - but for this reason we will avoid the Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn clash.

On Sunday Sydney are $1.39 but playing at the SCG deserve to be short, and should be too strong for North Melbourne.

While in much anticipated "match of the year" Geelong's class will start to rise to the top, while there are still question marks about whether St Kilda are a true genuine team. For these reason we will get on Geelong at $1.62.

Finally we will miss the Fremantle v Carlton match for 2 reasons, 1. too hard and 2. don't care

Happy punting

Read more...

AFL - Round 14

Essendon, Melbourne, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong and Carlton should all win - no time for more precise analysis

Read more...

AFL - Round 13

Start the weekend off by backing Essendon at $2.84 with betfair in tonight's match, which is good value.

Collingwood at $1.16 will be too good for Fremantle Saturday, while we will back Sydney with a 24.5 point start at $1.95 against Adelaide.

Don't be surprised if the demons give Brisbane a scare Saturday night in Brisbane. We will back Melbourne with a 44.5 point start at $1.95.

Hawthorn should win tomorrow night, but at $1.42 don't offer much value considering their recent form, and they are playing away - so we will give this game a miss.

Finally Geelong at $1.07, Western Bulldogs at $1.17 and StKilda at $1.12 will all be too good on Sunday and these make a perfect little multi - but at present this combination is only been offered at $1.35 through the AFL Accumulators markets on betfair.

Read more...

AFL - Round 12 Part II

Although the game is being played at ANZ stadium tonight, and not the SCG, we still think Sydney might upset Collingwood, who are an average side that's overrated by many. Take the $2.20 0n offer for Sydney on betfair.

In the Sunday match, Fremantle came really close to beating Geelong in this corresponding match last year - and were infact unlucky not to win. But although Fremantle are a rabble this year we will back them with a 44.5 point start at $1.85 on betfair.

Read more...

AFL - Round 12 Part I Sunday

Hawthorn will be too good for Brisbane Sunday. The game is being played in Tasmania and the boys from the sunshine state will find it tough in the near Arctic conditions of Launceston. Haws to win bu more than 15 points at $2 with betfair.

Read more...

AFL - Round 12 Part I

Split round in the AFL this week with 5 games this weekend, and the final 3 matches the following week.

And a very difficult round it is. Of the matches over the weekend it's possible that 3 or 4 outsiders could get up!!!

We will start with the Friday night game and although St Kilda should win it would not surprise if the blues go close - or even got home. Although we think the game will be close throughout with the Saints pulling away late in the game. Will back the Saints with a minus 18.5 start at $1.99. Also we will have a go at Total Match Points being greater than 188.5 at $1.66 with betfair.

Looks like Richmond have finally decided to start tanking for draft choices, dropping 5 older players for this week. I can't believe the tigers are favourites. Lump on West Coast to win at $2.26. Western Bulldogs at $1.30 will be too good for Port Adelaide.

Fancy a bet in the Hawthorn v Brisbane game Sunday but will post again latter in the weekend once markets have developed.

Good luck!!!

Read more...

AFL - Round 11

It's been two big winning weekends on the AFL punt in round 8 and 9. Unfortunately due to circumstances outside our control we were not able to post our round 10 selections, so we are all fired up, and all cashed up for this week

Terry's last game so not sure what to expect in the Friday night match this week. Bulldogs back in form but the tigers may come out fighting. You would expect the tigers to put up a bit of a fight (but you never know with Richmond). Anyway for sentimental sake we will have a wager on Richmond with a 24.5 point start at $2.02 at betfair.

In other matches St Kilda at $1.13 will be too good for North Melbourne. Brisbane at home at $1.67 will be too good for Carlton. Who knows what Adelaide team will turn when playing away so we will plonk our money on Essendon at $2.

Hawthorn with minus (-) 15.5 point start is good value at $1.97. Also in this match fancy "Total Match Points" being under 198 but no market depth on betfair as yet.

While Melbourne were 5 goals up against Collingwood last game they played and are now a much better team. So we will finish off the long weekend with a wager on the Melbourne with a 26.5 point start - but will wait to closer to the bounce for the betfair market to mature.

Happy Punting

Read more...

AFL - Round 9

We had a profitable week last round in the AFL and will attempt to follow up in Round 9. We don't have enough time this week to check out too many of the betting options available on betfair for AFL. Instead we will just concentrate on the matches we feel most confident in. Geelong at $1.18 against the Western Bulldogs will get the ball rolling tonight, while we will back both Essendon at $1.60 against Richmond and Sydney at $1.67 against Port Adelaide in Saturday nights matches.

We will go all up on a few of these combinations over the weekend.

Melbourne at $1.88 with a 33.5 point start on Sunday against Hawthorn is also worth a dollar or two.

Read more...

AFL - Saturday Round 8

Most games this weekend have a clear favourite but many of the outsiders may go closer than many think and we will have a go at a few of them with taking the points start. North Melbourne have pushed Geeelong in Geelong before and we expect this game to be closer than the walkover most people will expect. Snap up North with a 46.5 point head start at $1.88 with Betfair.

The same goes for Melbourne. We will have a big bet on Melbourne with a 64.5 head start at $1.22, and we will also take some of Melbourne with a 34.5 point head start at $1.91 with Betfair.

Sydney, Brisbane and Port Adelaide all have home ground advantage, and will all start short favourites but all are definitely under the odds. To spice the weekend up we will have a bet on each of the outsiders - Adelaide with a 20.5 point start at $1.92, West Coast with a 23.5 point start at $1.97 and Richmond with a 26.5 point start at $1.83.

All prices from Betfair Australia

Happy Punting

Read more...

AFL - Round 6

A hard round this week - harder than first glance indicates. In Saturday action in the AFL this week Hawthorn at $1.99, on Betfair, are good value against Carlton. Essendon again are good value at $2.72, while the two derby matches are too hard to call.

On Sunday Sydney at $1.47 is a must, St Kilda v Bulldogs we will skip. We will have to have a dollar or two on Melbourne at $18 just for the fact that is the highest price I've ever seen in an AFL match, and will have a slightly bigger bet on Melbourne with a 58 point start at the good odds of $2 offered this morning on Betfair.

Happy Punting

Read more...

AFL Week 5 - Sunday

Geelong at short odds will win in the bad weather today. Short at $1.15 on Betfair but are close to impossible to bet at home. Western Bulldogs at $2.04 should win against Carlton. Have a dollar or two on Melbourne at $3.35 to win back to back for the first time in 2 years against Adelaide.

Read more...

AFL - Week 4

A harder week in the AFL then first appreance. We will only have one bet by laying the option Collingwood +9.5 at $1.87 on Betfair, this means we will collect if Brisbane wins by 10 points or more.

Read more...

Why use Betfair - Better Odds

Probably the best reason for using betfair as your bookmaker is simply - better odds!!!

All the advertising that betfair makes about getting better odds is true. I've used betfair for over 5 years now and over 90% of the time the odds offered on the betting exchange are better than traditional bookmakers. Sometimes the odds are just marginally better, but often they are significantly better. I've received $2.20 for a favourite that was $1.80 on traditional bookmakers and the TAB. The odds can be significantly better at betfair when your backing a horse at a mid-price or an outsider in big races here in Australia.

Tonight's (14th April 2009) Champions League quarter final between Chelsea and Liverpool is a great example. On Betfair, you can get $2.50 for a Chelsea victory, while bookmakers in Australia are only offering $2.20 for the same result - that's a 30% better return.

Yes betfair do take a commission (up to 5%) but the commission paid is based on your profit, rather than your total collect. e.g. if you had $10 on a winner paying $2, you would win $20, making $10 profit - therefore you pay $0.50 commission and collect $19.50.

Using the AFL as an example, if two teams were considered equal chances, on betfair you would receive $2 for either team, with other betting agencies probably offering $1.85 or $1.90 for each. If you backed the winner, after commission your profit would be at least 5% extra - and this is on a two horse race!!!

Remember the more you turnover on betfair reduces the percentage rate of commission you pay!!!

Read more...

AFL - Easter Weekend

A lot of short favourites this weekend in the AFL - Hawthorn, St Kilda & Western Bulldogs should all win. Sydney could upset Brisbane, while who knows how long Melbourne will play good football against Port - but this game could be closer than most people think!

We will save our money for the Carlton v Essendon game and lump on Carlton ($1.30) this week

Read more...